It is “critically important” that projections on hospital bed capacity do not use the “minimum end of the scale as a benchmark”, the IMO has informed the Medical Independent (MI).
The Organisation was reacting to a new Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report, which projects that the number of inpatient beds in public acute hospitals will need to increase by at least 40 per cent by 2040.
The research, funded by the Department of Health, found there would be a requirement for an additional 4,400 to 6,800 inpatient beds by 2040.
However, in a statement to MI, the IMO said the ESRI estimates were “particularly low” given that in 2018 the Institute said up to 5,600 extra public hospital beds were needed by 2030. The Organisation said that only 1,500 additional beds have been delivered since 2018.
IMO President Dr Anne Dee welcomed the ESRI’s report. However, she said that “it does not appear to accurately reflect the scale of the challenge we are facing given we are currently experiencing a seriously problematic shortfall in bed numbers”.
“Our shortfall in bed numbers has led to increasing trolley numbers, ever-lengthening waiting lists, increased doctor burnout, doctor recruitment and retention challenges and, worst of all, poorer patient outcomes.
“It is unconscionable in 2025 that we do not have the bed numbers we need to cater for current patient demand, which would give us the foundation we need on which to improve service delivery.”
She added that a baseline estimate of capacity must acknowledge the hospital system needs 5,000 extra beds to meet current demand.
The IHCA said the Government should “expedite the implementation” of its acute hospital inpatient bed capacity expansion plan, which was published in May 2024.
The Association also urged the six HSE health regions to publish in-depth regional projections of their acute hospital bed capacity requirements up to 2040.
The ESRI report stated the increase in capacity will be required due to a growing and ageing population. By 2040, the population is expected to increase by between 600,000 and one million people. Currently, about one in seven people are aged over 65 and this will be closer to one in five by 2040.
“That shift has big implications for healthcare in general, and hospital services in particular, as older people are very high users,” Dr Aoife Brick (PhD), ESRI Senior Research Officer and lead author, told MI.
“This means that even at the lower end of our projections, which take a more optimistic view on, for example, healthy ageing and community care expansion, Ireland will need significant additional hospital capacity to meet future demand.” See news feature https://www.medicalindependent.ie/in-the-news/news-features/building-healthcare-capacity-for-future-demand/
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