Rising demand for GPNs projected, according to ESRI report

A new Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report projects a notable demand for GP and general practice nurse (GPN) consultations by 2040. The research, which is funded by the Department of Health, considers a range of scenarios based on varying assumptions about population growth and ageing, the pace of healthy ageing, and policy reforms.  

The rising demand for general practice services is largely driven by population growth and, to a lesser extent, population ageing. Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends.

The proportion of the population aged under 25 will decrease while the proportion aged 50 and over will increase. While all age groups use general practice services, utilisation tends to increase with age.

Demand and workforce requirements identified in the report:

• GPN consultations are projected to grow from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040, growth of between 32 and 36 per cent.
• Requirements for an additional 761 to 868 GPNs by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 2,288 GPNs.
• GP consultations are projected to grow from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040, growth of between 23 and 30 per cent.
• Requirements for an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 3,928 GPs.

Reflecting the aspirations of the Sláintecare reform proposals, a number of reforms have been implemented in general practice in recent years, including the extension of GP visit cards to children under eight years of age and to those below the median income, as well as the development of the Chronic Disease Management Programme.

While it is anticipated that such reforms may reduce pressures on the hospital sector in the medium term, they will inevitably increase the demand for general practice services in the coming years; increases which come in addition to the significant increase in demand arising from a growing and ageing population.

Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said: “This analysis from the ESRI provides valuable insights into the interaction between our growing and ageing population and the demand for care from general practice. It will inform the Government’s efforts to collaborate with general practice to enhance its capacity as a core component of healthcare delivery in Ireland.”

The Irish College of GPs (ICGP) welcomed publication of the ESRI report and called for urgent delivery of the Strategic Review of General Practice to help plan for an increase of up to 23 per cent in GP demand by 2040. 

Chair of the Board of the ICGP Dr Deirdre Collins said: “We are acutely aware of the impact of the growing population, and the ageing population, on GP services. This ESRI report is welcome, because it helps give fresh insights into the challenges facing policy makers and the HSE in meeting the growing demand for GP services.” 

The CEO of the ICGP Fintan Foy added: “The ESRI report paints a stark picture of the impact of the growing population on GP demand in the coming years. With the support of the HSE and the Department of Health, we remain positive that we can continue to address the challenges of GP shortages.

“We hope that the resources needed to ensure GPs can set up in areas of new population and where GPs are retiring, can be available when needed. We believe the Strategic Review of General Practice needs to be expedited to ensure we can put long-term plans in place to meet the growing healthcare needs of the Irish population.” 

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