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GP demand to increase by at least 23 per cent over next 15 years

By Mindo - 18th Jun 2025

Credit: iStock.com/acob Wackerhausen

Demand for GP consultations will increase by at least 23 per cent by 2040, according to a new report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

ESRI projections find that this significant rise is mainly due to population growth and “to a lesser extent”, population ageing

On the basis of this growing patient demand, the report finds that there will be requirements for an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs by 2040. In 2023 there were approximately 3,928 GPs in Ireland.

The report also concludes that there will be a requirement for an additional 761 to 868 general practice nurses (GPNs) by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 2,288 GPNs.

“Population growth and ageing will result in a significant increase in the demand for general practice services in the coming years,” according to the ESRI. These increases come in addition to increases in demand arising from recent policy reforms including the introduction of the chronic disease management programme and an increase in the number of people eligible for a GP visit card.

Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill welcomed the report, stating that it highlighted the challenge in ensuring that the Irish population continues to have access to quality GP services.

“We are already expanding GP training places by 80 per cent since 2019, now offering 350 places annually,” said the Minister. “Through the International Medical Graduate programme, developed in cooperation with the ICGP, we are recruiting GPs internationally, particularly for rural areas.”

The Minister also noted that the ongoing strategic review of general practice, due to complete its work this year, “will outline new ways to ensure we have the capacity” to provide GP services.

In response to the report, the IMO has said that Ireland’s “critically low” GP numbers will not rise without significant systemic change.

It added that a lack of supports to both establish and maintain GP practices was deterring doctors from entering and staying in general practice.

The Organisation has been warning for many years of the need for ongoing and sustained support for general practice to match the needs of a growing and ageing population.

Dr Tadhg Crowley,Chair of the IMO GP committee, said: “While we acknowledge and welcome the fact that more GP training places have been made available in recent years, this has not been matched with supports for new and existing GP practices which is a major deterrent for doctors and is having a significant impact on recruitment and retention. This has led to our critically low GP numbers today.”

He said that the impact of the Financial Emergency Measures in the Public Interest (FEMPI) Act in 2009 was still being felt.

“General practice was decimated by the FEMPI cuts during the recession and has not yet fully recovered some 16 years later. As a result, we have a severe lack of younger GPs and those who do enter the specialty are hampered by a range of factors – in particular, the costs associated with setting up and running a practice.”

He said that more undergraduate medicine places were needed as a realistic starting point. “If we just increase the number of GP training places, we will only be robbing Peter to pay Paul as other specialties will suffer. Ireland has a lack of doctors across the board, and as such we need more undergraduate places to be made available as a priority.”

Dr Crowley said that along with boosting the GP workforce, it was imperative that the physical infrastructure was also built up to reflect growing demand.

  • The report ‘Projections of national demand and workforce requirements for General Practice in Ireland, 2023–2040: Based on the Hippocrates model’ is available here https://www.esri.ie/publications/projections-of-national-demand-and-workforce-requirements-for-general-practice-in

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